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A report issued Wednesday by Gartner Dataquest predicts that the machines, based on a new version of Microsoft's Windows XP operating system, will account for just 1 percent of worldwide notebook shipments in 2003, for a total of about 425,000 tablet PCs.
While they may find wider adoption in niche markets that are currently using pen-based tablets, "only the bravest" will have adopted tablet PCs widely by the end of 2003, Gartner Dataquest vice president Leslie Fiering said in a release.
Research firm IDC also predicts that tablet PCs will get off to a relatively slow start, selling about 575,000 units in the United States in 2003 and about 1 million units in 2004. The total U.S. notebook market will be about 13 million units in 2003, IDC predicts, about 8 percent of which will be ultraportables.