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The people who think about the price of Windows are those who actually go to a retail store and buy an upgrade copy, Cherry said. So far, sales of boxed copies of Vista have trailed initial sales of Windows XP, according to NPD data. Cherry anticipates that most people will buy a flavor of Vista that corresponds to the version they have of XP. But some will want to move up to a heftier-featured edition, and that will add further to the perceived cost. That's particularly true if a consumer opts for Vista Ultimate, which sells for $259 as an upgrade and $399 for the full product.